Shimron Hetmyer lit up Wankhede against Zimbabwe on Monday. His explosive batting helped West Indies rack up 254 runs in just 20 overs. Then Gudakesh Moti came in and spun a web around Zimbabwe’s batters, bowling them out for just 147. West Indies didn’t just win, they thrashed Zimbabwe by 107 runs and boosted their run rate to +5.350. This puts India in a tight spot. Even if India wins both of its remaining games, there’s no guarantee of a spot in the semi-finals. The run rate is now the big worry. When India takes the field on Wednesday, one can bet they’ll be thinking about that equation.

After losing to South Africa by 76 runs in Ahmedabad, India’s run rate took a big hit and it’s now down to -3.800. To catch up with South Africa and West Indies, India needs something special. If they beat Zimbabwe by at least 100 runs, their run rate could get close to South Africa’s. If they’re chasing, though, they’ll need to knock off 150 runs in just 15 overs. These are rough estimates and with two matches left, a lot can still change depending on which teams make it out of Group A.

The upcoming West Indies vs South Africa match in Ahmedabad should clear things up in Group A. Whoever wins will have four points. That puts extra pressure on India and they’ll need a big win over Zimbabwe. But what exactly will India have to do to qualify for the semi-finals from Group A? That will hinge on how the Zimbabwe vs. South Africa game plays out.

Here’s how it breaks down:

1. If West Indies beat South Africa, they jump to four points. India then needs a huge win over Zimbabwe. If South Africa bounces back to beat Zimbabwe, India will know exactly what they need to do against West Indies. Ideally, India will want to thrash Zimbabwe and avoid any last-minute drama.
2. If South Africa beats West Indies, and India takes down Zimbabwe, the final clash with West Indies becomes do-or-die for India. Whoever wins that goes to the semi-finals.
3. If Zimbabwe pulls off upsets against both India and South Africa, then both India and West Indies could be knocked out of the semi-final race.

So now, Indian fans will be glued to the South Africa vs West Indies match, hoping South Africa wins. India needs to win both matches, plain and simple. But if West Indies wins, India’s road to the semis gets a lot tougher.